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  • in reply to: Please 'rate' my new strategy EURUSD H1 #242434|
    Customer
    484 Posts

    Probably my last forum comment because I am wasting too much time testing hypothesis based on what I read here and I no longer use the excellent SQ for development (it remains an absolutely outstanding tool) so it is a daft thing to continue to read these posts.  The current hypothesis is: “the strategy above is 2 for 1 penny/cent, they can be built within 2 hours from start to finish”; I’m an hour and a half in the process, running Consenio’s WF strategy config’ on strategies I’ve generated but what is the point?   By now you must ALL realize generating good looking models meeting with the requisite criteria of an excellent looking model is actually a walk in the park, it is easy to do.  We all know this.

    The thing is most traders are posting vanity backtests – whether here or elsewhere – for many many months or years.  Some post good strategies with 1-month half-lives so one can download them or give them to associates to use for 2-3 months then consign them to the bin.  Where are the live trading results to back up the vanity backtests; surely the live results are for months or years?

    There are no longer live results because if the above strategy fails, we will not hear about it again if it succeeds we will.  Basically, an additional form of bias.   I’m suggesting there is a great deal of self-delusional going on here.

    Based on the available evidence (and to be honest, there really is not a lot) Hankey is the best 100% SQ built algo developer and trader on the forum.  This is based on available evidence.   On average Hankey can achieve a profit factor of 1.05 to 1.15 in live trading with stagnation periods to match; in general, this is the reality.  I sincerely consider a consistent and reliable 1.15 profit factor in live trading to be a big accomplishment and I’m confident this is more than 99.9% of traders using SQ are managing to achieve IF THEY ARE COMPLETELY HONEST WITH THEMSELVES meaning they do not conveniently forget about the bad models’ equity decimation of the past.  Do you think a model with a profit factor of 10 gives you a better chance of achieving a higher profit factor in live trading? Do you think modeling a profit factor of 1.15 to 1.3 gives you a better chance of deploying a model that performs as per backtest on the live account?  Or haven’t you even bothered to empirically test it, relying instead on unfounded assumptions, with the arrogance of knowledge with no evidence of knowledge thereby deterring those who can actually help you from lending the vital helping hand?

    1-year prediction – I’ll write my next comment then:

    1. Hankey’s average PF will increase to 1.15 to 1.2 enough to make a person fabulously rich over the course of time;

    2. vanity backtests and the kudos from posting them will remain the dominant force on the forum.

    Vanity backtests are 2 for a penny just like mine below!  However, I can virtually guarantee (99% confidence) the performance below will continue to mirror the backtest but I rely on the empirical method and not unfounded assumptions.  I’ll post the live results in 12 months time when I next post.

     

    Green pips all and I hope you develop!!!

     

     

     

    in reply to: Please 'rate' my new strategy EURUSD H1 #242430
    Customer
    484 Posts

    @notch: will you be so kind and show us some MXN strategy? and tell us the broker where are you trading the MXN pairs? Because sometime ago i was trying to find new markets and my interest fell also on MXN pairs. But if i make some analysis through my real brokers, there are very big difference. Some brokers has MXN pairs as 4 decimals, some of them with 5 decimals somewhere the swaps are HUGE… could you tell us something about your findings? another markets where to try to find strats? are you trading also market and limit strategies? If so, on what markets…

     

    See attached.

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    in reply to: Please 'rate' my new strategy EURUSD H1 #242382
    Customer
    484 Posts

    It looks great as a start.

    However, based on the information provided I have a P-value of 0.01 the strategy begins to die 3 months after deployment.  You’ve probably started to see this and if not yet give it another month or two.

    The NULL Hypothesis of “the EURUSD is the easiest pair to model” was rejected at the 95% confidence level years ago.  USDMXN is much easier.

     

    A nice strategy though so it doesn’t deserve the bin; it just needs a little noise thrown in the mix.

     

     

    Customer
    484 Posts

    That stop and limit orders require some mandatory fields before strategy generation doesn’t make it folly selecting all entry modes provided the mandatory fields are selected, that is pure common sense.

    Based on an assumption, you’re just cutting off an area of valuable research with zero empirical verification; the sin here is not that you adopt this approach but you’re passing it off as SQX strategy building lore with the potential to carry a host of noobs down the path of 1.02 profit factor in live trading.

     

     

    Customer
    484 Posts

    but you will have everything in one pack, and market, limit strategies needs whole different workflow

    That’s nonsense.

     

    Customer
    484 Posts

    Would you please send me the settings you were looking for?

     

    I just used prices and a couple of indies.  I turned filters off then filtered manually selecting models meeting your criteria.

    Customer
    484 Posts

    29 strategies produced in 15 minutes (50K strategies generated) that meet the above-listed criteria.

    Reply not required or welcome but consider using the word “unqualified” less in your posts (black pot etc).

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    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241522
    Customer
    484 Posts

    I’ve just got back from the Discord group…I went in as Doug.  I am still laughing about the plane picture.

    Thought for the weekend: Hands-down…forex is the most difficult financial time series to model.  Forex TS is like mercury, it is a genuine pain in the ass.  If you’re attempting to capture between 5% to 30% per year, why even bother with forex when it is like mercury.  You could waste years of your life; I HAVE, hence my reading of forex prices like a Greek God! (pun intended)

     

    I challenge anyone with more than 3 months experience using SQ to build a simple 5min Ebay or Facebook stock intraday model using prices and 2 of their favourite indicators; put the model through the usual mill of robustness stuff; chances are, you’ll quickly find your 5% to 30% wasn’t in forex after all.

     

     

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241518
    Customer
    484 Posts

    Cut looser short and let winners run.. basic. This week is definitely positive.

     

    Me too.  50% return on the small account and 5% on the main account (I place manual trades on the small account and trade copy them to the main account); the week is over so I need some deep relaxation because I need to perform well on Monday.  There are no long-run gains without consistency.

     

    Have a good weekend.

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241515
    Customer
    484 Posts

    But I guess an Alien stuck at its computer watching prices will take an interest in any opinion if it enriches the day.

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241511
    Customer
    484 Posts

    Nice. I Have 2 live GBP long from bottom and one Short from the top . did not even look at the chart :)

     

    Not to mention all the algo trades that are in the red!!!  Remember, I have an algo portfolio as well.  I know how it works.

     

    But like Drayzen’s signature reads…”the Alien does not concern itself with the opinion of humans”  lol

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241509
    Customer
    484 Posts

    Nice. I Have 2 live GBP long from bottom and one Short from the top . did not even look at the chart :)

     

    Yes mate and I sold the EURUSD in 2007 at 1.59841, closed it at  1.050548 in 2016 then entered long at that price and I’m still holding.  All trades by flipping a coin and reading my Tarot cards.  :)

     

    But seriously Mabi, you are referring to algo trades.  manual trading I use stop-losses of 2 to 10 pips whereas with an algo you’ll be using much larger stops meaning for 1% risk I am able to trade a much larger position size.

     

    1. Stopped out the tick volume long trade for a few.

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241506
    Customer
    484 Posts

    Took a short just below 2711.

    I can’t allow what I believe will happen to get in the way of what is actually occurring.  I’m targetting 2655 but may attempt to hold for longer in case price moves towards yesterday’s LOW, I also have a buy stop above the HIGH in case price suddenly breaks out to the upside.

     

    Volume related decision.  Closed short for a few and switched to long:

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241505
    Customer
    484 Posts

    I wonder if we could incorporate high impact news modeling in SQ.

    Technically this should be very easy to implement…I wonder why we do not have this feature yet. Did you already make a new feature request ticket for this one?

     

    Shame on me.  I haven’t requested it yet.  I will add a request.

    in reply to: Notch's Ramblings #241502
    Customer
    484 Posts

    Surprise 2710 double test and more profits are taken.

     

    I’m expecting price to move much higher but need 2711 to become support and be tested twice from above.

     

    Generational wealth trading at its finest!

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 442 total)