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I will digest the material from the links over the weekend and add more comments after I have more knowledge.
Thanks for a good thread.
Grid on the TDS backtester!!!
Price should fall between 2655 to 2665
There’s no point writing I’m an expert when I can just show it!
Closed for 5 pips. Not much but a profit is a profit; I suddenly remembered the cardinal rule of support and resistance: the price is going to test it at least twice.
We got the double touch of 2664, I just didn’t think it would hit 2710 first!!! Now for a double touch of 2710!!! Fingers crossed.
Who the hell isn’t going to sit at the computer when they can read price like that?
Please with it but wanted to hold to 2711…
GBPUSD price is rapidly approaching the 2711 mark without me on it!!! However, trading before high impact news for me is a no-no even if it means I miss out on double-digit account growth from a near perfect trade plan! If you are near certain where the price is heading one can naturally load on the lots.
Price should fall between 2655 to 2665
Next date in Roadmap for SQ ?
namely online version of AlgoWizard and with it the backend infrastructure that will later be used also by SQ grid.
A nice move and long overdue. The last thing we need is for SQX to become a niche product; since the rate of competition entering the online algo building space is increasing at a rapid rate it is logical SQ should also enter the space to remove the threat of becoming niche. For members, a niche product would mean no more exceptional support and updates. I hope SQ also has plans to deploy a lite version of SQX online too. I like exceptional support and updates; continue the battle to stay relevant.
Last post and I’ll wait for other contributors:
I may play with the idea on a different modeler:
So basically, for point 2. I would simply compare every global Index by relative momentum or relative strength then put my money in the best performing one?
I wonder what the result would be if a hedge was built in: so the top 20% would be bought and the bottom 20% would be sold.
However momentum trading, is a very wide topic, maybe this or something similar, could be adapted to other instruments = the second part of this discussion. I wonder if someone already used something similar in the past.
Wow, that backtest performance looks great!
Any idea how such a thing could be incorporated in SQ? Could it be done in Algobuilder if not the main program?
Closed for 5 pips. Not much but a profit is a profit; I suddenly remembered the cardinal rule of support and resistance: the price is going to test it at least twice. The price will be rejected on the first attempt, it is the 2nd test that counts.
I wonder if there is a way for SQ to enter a stop or limit order after the 2nd attempt.
I have 10 more minutes to reenter if the POC is retested; if no retest I’ll call it a day for manual trading because I’ve bagged enough % and I’ll move on to some grid EA work; I’ve discovered a way to prevent grids from adding additional positions until the greatest likelihood of the price moving in the correct direction thus overcoming one of the greatest weaknesses of the grid: being caught on the wrong side in a strong trend.
Price fell back to the POC at 2664 then immediately moved higher…great support the POC. I managed to take a small bite long at 2668. SL 10 pips which is very large for me so not feeling great about this entry because I’ve overpaid by 4 pips. However, the price has move immediately into profit so it looks as though I may score a few before the news show. I’ll close 30 mins before the news.
I wonder if we could incorporate high impact news modeling in SQ.
Note: volume rarely lies. Buying volume is 3 times higher than the selling volume.
I wonder if SQ can create a way to separate buying from selling volume.
- This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by notch.
Taken the first 3% from the GBPUSD from 2662 to 2684. 3 pip SL.
Please with it but wanted to hold to 2711 but then I realized there is high impact news in just over an hour and there is nothing like high impact news to get in the way of the ‘near perfect’ trading plan. Price is now falling back to the point of control and may even fall to the initial balance. Trading from the initial balance seems to be a straightforward way to make a few %.
Question is: how the hell do I model ‘time at price’ in SQ? A question I’ve had since starting to use the software.
Or even better: volume at price! These are the features that would deliver extreme modeling value and relatively few false positives.
: http://www.optimalmomentum.com/gem_trackrecord.html Has anybody any experience with this or something similar?
I just want to quickly acknowledge a great thread discussion. I will review the links later.
I have experience in stock performance ranking on a weekly basis based on price momentum. I guess that work could be extended. However, I used neural nets for ranking. I’m not sure how I could go about it in the current version of SQX.
On the subject of poor/bad models:
The beauty of a model is in the eye of the beholder. However, the selection of a model based on the aesthetic qualities of the equity curve and the resulting performance stats doesn’t make sense to me.
Most users who have more than 12 month’s SQ experience and have deployed live models must realize the chances of obtaining a model that mirrors the perfect equity curve in live trading probably has a P-Value of 0.001. Why does this even matter? It matters because when you combine those models as a portfolio in QA, the portfolio performance in live trading is a complete fantasy (as many experienced users now know).
Give me a backtest performance that reflects the prevailing economic events at certain points in time over a ruler-straight equity curve. At least that way you actually may produce something of value when combining strategies into a portfolio.
I had a good day in the GBPUSD manual trading trenches; bought the low and sold what I hope is the high (trade sell running).
SQ wise, I didn’t learn anything new. However, I had a number of things reinforced:
1. Support and resistance reign supreme;
2. buying tick volume and selling tick volume are the closest things to a crystal ball in Forex trading.
What does this mean for SQ model development:
Serious and profitable manual traders are always aware of the location of key support & resistance areas. The most common of these is
a. D1 O,H,L,C & (H+L)/2;
b. W1 O,H,L,C & (H+L)/2;
c. MN1 O,H,L,C & (H+L)/2;
d. Floor trader Pivots or simply Pivots in SQ;
e. simple moving averages 50, 100,200,500,1000
f. do not ignore tick volume. Tick volume inclusion generates some surmountable challenges which you can debate between yourselves; just leave me out of that debate. Volume is an essential component for accurate forex model development.
g. raw price trumps all indicators 5 days of the trading week, followed by simple moving averages. By now you know monte carlo with replacement (random) can be used to generate p values or in other words, P-value 0.01 basically means the models passing an MC at the 99% significance level and P-value 0.05 means models passing at the 95% significance level. Raw prices are noisy so use MC to remove the most contaminated.
Please note the MC assumes a Gaussian distribution and price data is non-stationary (non-gaussian) therefore you will still have to wrestle with many false positives (shit models) until you have mastered more advanced techniques to remove the feces.