Another angle I’m looking at, to tip the probabilities in our favour are seasonal effects.
Here is a table showing monthly price changes, averaged over a long period:
So, sell the EUR in Jan for sure (only go short), buy in April and again in December.
Here’s one for oil:
The other option is to use the seasonal effect in the money management, i.e. use bigger lot sizes on longs for green months, and bigger lot sizes for shorts in red months.
What is needed is a statistical analysis of significance and a measure of association (probably using correlation).
In the meantime I might take an existing MQ4 strategy generated by SQ and play with using the average change to alter the lot sizes for long and short accordingly.
PS, feel free to give an opinion on this “edge”
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